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☆ Why Oil Prices Have Been Rising Recently
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-09 | by ( Stanley Reed | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Oil prices have climbed in recent weeks, spurred by concerns over supplies and geopolitical risks, including wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. The price of a barrel of Brent crude oil, the international benchmark, has risen more than 20 percent since mid-December. Rising oil prices could make efforts by central banks to reduce inflation more challenging. Market watchers note that a short-term retreat in prices, after such a rapid rise, is also possible. The oil price also remains below the peaks reached in 2022, when prices jumped well above $100 a barrel.

Persons: ”, Viktor Katona, Biden Organizations: Analysts, Energy Information Administration Locations: Ukraine, United States

☆ The Kremlin has never been richer – thanks to a US strategic partner
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-19 | by ( Nick Paton Walsh | Florence Davey-Attlee | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

It amounts to US strategic partner New Delhi stepping in to replace crude purchases by Western buyers, reduced by sanctions over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the analysis said. The United States led a coalition of countries in late 2022 that agreed to a “price cap,” undertaking not to buy Russian crude above $60 a barrel. Those nations also forbade their shipping companies and insurance firms – key players in global shipping – from facilitating the trade of Russian crude above that price. “The price cap was the real trigger for the creation of the shadow fleet,” said Viktor Katona, head of crude oil analysis at trade research firm Kpler. It will be $150.”India’s complex role in global oil trade is also reflected in the fate of the oil products Russian crude is turned into.

Persons: they’re, ”, David Tannenbaum, Viktor Katona, Tannenbaum, ” Ami Daniel, Vladimir Putin, Howard Shatz, Singh Puri, Rosneft, Daniel, I’m Organizations: CNN, Centre for Research, Energy, Clean, Star, Pole Star, US Treasury, United, Pole Star Global, European Union, RAND, India’s, Petroleum, Natural Gas, CNBC, Nayara, Kremlin Locations: Russia, Ukraine, India, United States, Delhi, Moscow, Laconian Gulf, Greece, Suez, Russian, Kyiv, Vadinar

☆ Red Sea crisis: Commercial shippers are 'very afraid,' analyst says
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRed Sea crisis: Commercial shippers are 'very afraid,' analyst saysViktor Katona, lead crude analyst at Kpler, says "right now there's not a single LNG carrier in the Red Sea."

Persons: Viktor Katona Locations: Red

☆ As more tankers divert from Suez Canal, there's a 'sea change' in way Europe is buying crude
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-23 | by ( Lori Ann Larocco | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Al HUDAYDAH, YEMEN - JULY 17: Yemen's replacement oil tanker Nautica floats over its arrival to Al Hudaydah port in the Red Sea on July 17, 2023 in Hudaydah, Yemen. (Photo by Mohammed Hamoud/Getty Images)Energy prices for Europe are expected to increase as more petroleum products and crude tankers are diverting away from the Rea Sea and Suez Canal. They would rather go around the Cape of Good Hope versus taking a chance through the Red Sea." LNG vessels travel faster than oil tankers because they are lighter and they can sail up to 21 knots versus the 12-13 knots for crude tankers. Before the Red Sea disruptions, a tanker from Jamnagar, India to Rotterdam, Netherlands would have taken 24 days.

Persons: Al, Mohammed Hamoud, Rea, Viktor Katona, Good Hope, It's, Katona Organizations: United Nations, Europe, U.S, Good Locations: Al HUDAYDAH, YEMEN, Al Hudaydah, Hudaydah, Yemen, Sana'a, Europe, Suez, Brazil, Africa's, Good, Israel, Jamnagar, India, Rotterdam, Netherlands, Basrah, Iraq, Milazzo, Sicily

☆ VIEW Chevron to buy Hess Corp for $53 bln in all-stock deal
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A 3D printed natural gas pipeline is placed in front of displayed Chevron logo in this illustration taken Feb. 8, 2022. The transaction might also create a peculiar coexistence of the United States' two leading oil majors in Guyana... Hess is geared towards crude production, with oil accounting for 60% of its current output which fits in very nicely with Chevron's similarly oil-focused portfolio. On the deal itself, the Chevron-Hess merger is expected to have a significant impact on the shale oil industry with Chevron becoming the second-largest shale producer in the United States. The merger is also likely to lead to increased M&A and industry consolidation in the North America shale sector.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, bode, Hess, John Hess, PETER MCNALLY, VIKTOR KATONA, KPLER Hess, Chevron, ROBIN HELANDER, Seher Dareen, Ron Bousso, Dmitry Zhdannikov, Mark Potter Organizations: Chevron, REUTERS, Chevron Corp, Hess Corp, Exxon Mobil, ROYAL, Third, Natural Resources, Hess, Thomson, & $ Locations: Guyana, Chevron, North Dakota, United States, North America

☆ A price cap on Russian oil aims to starve Putin of cash. But it’s largely been untested. Until now
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

For months after Ukraine's Western allies limited sales of Russian oil to $60 per barrel, the price cap was still largely symbolic. That time has now come, putting the price cap to its most serious test so far and underlining its weaknesses. But most of that, economists say, stems from Europe's ban on Russian oil, which cost Moscow its main customer. The U.K. Treasury says it is "actively undertaking a number of investigations into suspected breaches of the oil price cap." "And there's a reason why the shippers haven't really complained or haven't flagged any issues with the oil price cap — because it's very easily circumvented."

Persons: —, Hilgenstock, P Global Platts, It's, Benjamin Hilgenstock, Vladimir Putin, They're, Viktor Katona, haven't, Alexander Novak, Putin, Novak, Europe —, Craig Kennedy, doesn't, Nataliia Shapoval, Shapoval Organizations: Salym Petroleum, U.S . Treasury Department, Stanford University, Research, Energy, Clean, P Global, Kyiv School of Economics, International Monetary Fund, Russia, U.S . Treasury, United Arab Emirates, Treasury, Radio Business, Harvard's Davis Center for Russian, Studies, Kyiv, Stanford, Tanker Locations: Salym, Russia, Ukraine, Israel, U.S, Moscow, Helsinki, Saudi Arabia, Ukrainian, Europe, Kozmino, Turkey, India, Russian, Asia

FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) — For months after Ukraine's Western allies limited sales of Russian oil to $60 per barrel, the price cap was still largely symbolic. That time has now come, putting the price cap to its most serious test so far and underlining its weaknesses. But most of that, economists say, stems from Europe's ban on Russian oil, which cost Moscow its main customer. They're accused of carrying Russian oil priced at $75 and $80 per barrel while relying on U.S.-connected service providers. “The price cap is working,” says Nataliia Shapoval, vice president for policy research at the Kyiv school.

Persons: —, Benjamin Hilgenstock, Vladimir Putin, ” Hilgenstock, P Global Platts, It's, They're, “, ”, Viktor Katona, haven't, Alexander Novak, Putin, Novak, Europe —, Craig Kennedy, doesn't, Nataliia Shapoval, Shapoval, Josh Boak Organizations: Kyiv School of Economics, International Monetary Fund, U.S . Treasury Department, Stanford University, ”, Russia ”, Research, Energy, Clean, P Global, Russia, U.S . Treasury, United Arab Emirates, Treasury, Radio Business, Harvard’s Davis Center for Russian, Studies, Kyiv, Stanford, Tanker Locations: FRANKFURT, Germany, Ukraine, Israel, Russia, Ukrainian, U.S, Moscow, Helsinki, Saudi Arabia, Europe, Kozmino, Turkey, India, Russian, Asia, Washington, russia, ukraine

Oil and gas tanks are seen at an oil warehouse at a port in Zhuhai, China October 22, 2018. Reuters' analysis of China's savings on oil purchases from the three sanctioned countries compares what Chinese importers would have paid by purchasing similar grades from non-sanctioned producers. For imports of Venezuelan oil, mostly heavy grade Merey, China saved an average of $10 a barrel versus comparable Colombian Castilla crude, the calculations based on the trader data showed. With January-September inflows of Venezuelan oil at around 430,000 bpd, according to the average of the Vortexa and Kpler data, China's savings from buying Venezuelan oil was $1.17 billion. TEAPOT MARGINSWith state refiners Sinopec and PetroChina refraining entirely from buying Iranian and Venezuelan crude, teapots have feasted on discounted oil from the two suppliers.

Persons: Aly, Kang Wu, Brent, Viktor Katona, Chen Aizhu, Muyu Xu, Tony Munroe Organizations: REUTERS, refiners, Reuters, P, Administration, Customs, Vortexa, Russia's, Castilla, Brent, U.S . State Department, U.S ., Thomson Locations: Zhuhai, China, Russia, Iran, Venezuela, SINGAPORE, United States, Moscow, Tehran, Caracas, East, West Africa, South America, Beijing, Kpler, Kozmino, Baltic, Ukraine, Europe, India, Brazil, Urals, Oman, U.S, Venezuelan, teapots, Shandong, Israel

☆ Supply cuts from Saudi Arabia remain price drivers for oil heading into the fourth quarter
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-02 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Experts predict oil prices will continue to rise heading into the fourth quarter, driven by tighter supply and production cuts. Despite some profit-taking in the last week of September, crude oil prices have rallied since the summer. That means U.S. crude oil reserves will remain under pressure amid the Saudi production cuts. And questions still remain as to the strength of a resurgence from the Chinese economy and how that will support higher oil prices. Goldman also recently published its list of buy-rated stocks to play higher oil prices, which included Chevron and Baker Hughes .

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Brent, Viktor Katona, Katona, Stephen Ellis, Ellis, Ole Hansen, " Hansen, Brian Mulberry, Mulberry, Goldman, Baker Hughes, Neil Mehta, Mehta Organizations: Brent, West, West Texas, Bank of America, Chevron, ExxonMobil, Morningstar, Saxos Bank, Zacks Investment Management, Federal Reserve, ConocoPhillips, XOM Locations: West Texas, Saudi Arabia, Saudi, Russia, OPEC, U.S, Cushing , Oklahoma, East, Kuwait, Iraq, Ukraine, Iran

India, the world's third biggest oil importer and consumer, also raised imports from Iraq while taking less Saudi oil, the data showed. India imported about 1.55 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian oil in September, 16% more than in August, while imports from Iraq increased by 17% to about 1.1 million bpd, LSEG data showed. Vortexa pegged imports of Russian oil at 1.52 million bpd, compared with 1.44 million bpd in August. India's Saudi Oil Imports surged in Aug, Russia fell to 7-mth lowAccording to Kpler data, India's imports of Russian crude jumped back to 1.8 million bpd in September from less than 1.5 million bpd in August. They mostly purchase Russian oil on the spot market, while largely relying on term contracts for Middle Eastern crude.

Persons: Viktor Katona, Kpler's Katona, Nidhi Verma, Mohi Narayan, Arpan Varghese, Simon Cameron, Moore Organizations: Saudi Oil Imports, Thomson Locations: DELHI, Russia, LSEG, India, Iraq, Kpler, Saudi Arabia, Ukraine

☆ Oil prices are more important to Saudi Arabia and Russia than market share: Kpler
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailOil prices are more important to Saudi Arabia and Russia than market share: KplerViktor Katona, Lead Crude Analyst at Kpler, says the cooperation between Saudi Arabia and Russia on oil production is unprecedented, and the world is being divided with "producers against consumers".

Persons: Viktor Katona Locations: Saudi Arabia, Russia

Pakistan paid for its first Russian crude cargo in Chinese yuan. "How will it pay other lenders and how will it finance trade with China if it uses the low yuan reserves to pay for Russian oil?" However, Urals quality is a deterrent, as Pakistan's refineries cannot get as much gasoline and diesel out of Urals crude as they produce from Saudi and UAE crudes. Kpler's Katona expects Pakistan's liquidity issues and technical challenges to weigh on its appetite for Russian crude. "Russian imports into Pakistan will not grow into anything bigger than one cargo per month," he said.

Persons: Shahbaz Ashraf, Aadil Nakhoda, Nakhoda, Viktor Katona, Zahid Mir, Mir, PRL, Kpler's Katona, Ariba Shahid, Charlotte Greenfield, Florence Tan, Sonali Paul Organizations: Pakistan, United, FRIM Ventures, Karachi's Institute of Business Administration, Saudi, Pakistan Refinery Ltd, Reuters, Thomson Locations: KARACHI, Pakistan, Ukraine, Russia, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Islamabad, Moscow, China, PORT, Oman, Saudi Arab, Saudi, UAE, Karachi, Sudarshan, Singapore

☆ CNBC Daily Open: The long-awaited recession might not come
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-18 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Meanwhile, China's lackluster gross domestic product figures, released yesterday, prompted Wall Street to cut their expectations of China's annual growth to around 5%. Peak oil demandIndia imported 2.2 million barrels of Russian oil per day in June. Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February last year and oil price caps were instituted, India has become one of the leading importers of Russian oil. Buffett previously revealed Berkshire added to its initial Activision stake in a bet the deal would close and cause shares to rise.

Persons: Hong, Hong Hao, Viktor Katona, Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett, Bitcoin, bitcoin Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, CNBC, Grow Investment, Activision Blizzard, Microsoft, Activision, BlackRock Locations: New York City, Asia, Pacific, India, Russia, Ukraine, Berkshire

☆ India's reliance on Russian oil may be 'approaching a limit'
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-18 | by ( Lee Ying Shan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Dhiraj Singh | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesIndia's ability to import more Russian oil may have hit a limit for the rest of the year, analysts tell CNBC, citing infrastructural and political constraints, as well as limitations to Russian oil flows. Since the Kremlin's invasion of Ukraine in February last year, India's refiners have been snapping up discounted Russian oil. Moscow has since leapfrogged to become India's leading source of crude oil, accounting for about 40% of India's crude imports. June marked the 10th consecutive month-on-month increase in India's imports of Russian crude, data from commodity intelligence firm Kpler showed. And that's the highest volume that India's imports of Russian oil can go — at least for the rest of the year, according to his predictions.

Persons: Dhiraj Singh, Janiv Shah, India's, Kpler, Viktor Katona, Daniel Hynes, Rystad Energy's Shah, Katona, Hynes, that's, Kpler's Organizations: Bharat Petroleum Corp, Bloomberg, Getty, CNBC, Rystad Energy, ANZ, India's Petroleum, International Energy Agency, Kpler Locations: Mumbai, India, Ukraine, Moscow, Russia, Asia, Kpler Russia

☆ Kpler: Saudi Arabia will do whatever it takes to keep oil prices close to $80 a barrel
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailKpler: Saudi Arabia will do whatever it takes to keep oil prices close to $80 a barrelViktor Katona, lead crude analyst at Kpler, discusses Saudi Arabia's move to cut an additional 1 million barrels per day from July, and whether it will matter in the long run amid weak global demand.

Persons: Viktor Katona Organizations: Saudi Locations: Saudi Arabia

☆ Will OPEC+ announce more output cuts? Analysts have their say
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

May 31 (Reuters) - The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries with Russia and other allies, or OPEC+, meet on June 4 to discuss whether additional oil production cuts should be implemented. But going into the meeting this weekend, OPEC+ has given mixed signals on whether further cuts are likely, keeping oil prices volatile recently. HSBC:* "We think OPEC+ will wait to see the impact of the latest series of cuts before making any further changes to supply." Viktor Katona, lead crude analyst at Kpler:* "We think OPEC+ is forced to react and one way or another will be inclined to cut." "A second cut would display their fears more openly and indicates greater weakness; we construe a second cut as a bearish signal unless the cuts are extremely substantive."

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Viktor Katona, Arpan Varghese, Ashitha, Matthew Lewis Organizations: of, Petroleum, bbl, HSBC, RaboBank, Thomson Locations: Russia, OPEC, China, Bengaluru

☆ Asia is in the middle of a record heatwave, and Russia is reaping the financial rewards of it
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-22 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Asian countries like India and China have been buying cheap Russian oil despite the sanctions. Now, they are also snapping up huge amounts of Russian coal and natural gas. That's on the back of a record heatwave in the region, which is driving the demand for air-conditioning. The country had imported a record 3.8 million tons of fuel from Russia in July, according to Kpler. Imports of Russian coal into China are high now partly due to the heatwave it's currently facing.

☆ Russian Attack on Ukraine Kills at Least 12 People: Live Updates
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-28 | by ( Marc Santora | Victoria Kim | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +5 min

Evidence is piling up about the steady disintegration of Russia’s vital natural gas export industry since the country’s invasion of Ukraine. With this success behind them, European leaders are contemplating widening their attack to include imports of liquefied natural gas from Russia. Russian L.N.G. energy commissioner, has urged members of the bloc and European energy companies to stop buying Russian L.N.G. On the other hand, having largely gone cold turkey on Russian pipeline gas, European leaders may calculate that “going without Russian L.N.G.

☆ Wall Street predicted a big surge for oil this year. But prices are now lower
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-28 | by ( Ruxandra Iordache | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Oil prices were rattled by the collapse of several U.S. and European lenders earlier this spring, which discouraged volatility-adverse investors from historically riskier assets, such as commodities. Beijing, the world's largest importer of crude oil, reined in its purchases last year amid drastic "zero-Covid" restrictions that depressed transport fuel requirements. Kpler data indicates that China's imports of Russian crude oil averaged 1.59 million barrels per day in March, up 68% from the same period in 2022. The latest cuts already spell a tight supply-demand balance that could hit households, the International Energy Agency warned in its latest monthly Oil Market Report. "Our oil market balances were already set to tighten in the second half of 2023, with the potential for a substantial supply deficit to emerge.

☆ OPEC+ output cut is 'a very loud, very marked Saudi-first policy,' analyst says
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailOPEC+ output cut is 'a very loud, very marked Saudi-first policy,' analyst saysViktor Katona, lead crude analyst at Kpler, weighs in on the implications for oil markets as OPEC+ announces a surprise voluntary output cut.

☆ Oil market gripped by fears from U.S., Europe and growth optimism in Asia, analyst says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailOil market gripped by fears from U.S., Europe and growth optimism in Asia, analyst saysViktor Katona, lead crude analyst at Kpler, gives his outlook for oil markets in 2023 as regions recover at staggered rates and the war in Ukraine continues.

☆ New Western measures aim to turn up the heat on Putin’s oil revenues. Analysts are underwhelmed
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-07 | by ( Sam Meredith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The West's latest attempt to ramp up its oil war against Russia may cause some market dislocation, but some energy analysts remain far from convinced that the restrictions will constitute a "transformative event." An EU ban on Russian oil product imports came into effect on Feb. 5, following similar restrictions on EU crude oil intake, implemented on Dec. 5. The price cap coalition, which is composed of Australia, Canada, the EU, Japan, the U.K. and the U.S., seeks to deplete Russian President Vladimir Putin's war chest amid Moscow's ongoing hostilities in Ukraine. Some analysts warned that the measures could cause "significant market dislocations" and that the EU embargo was more complex and more disruptive than what had come before. "This will bring us basically into the same story that we had with the oil price cap back in December.

☆ Russia faces new sanctions on its energy exports - but this time China and India may not come to Putin's rescue
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-28 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The European Union's upcoming ban on Russian oil products could spell more turmoil for the Kremlin. China and India are unlikely to buy refined Russian fuels that were once sold to the EU, which will ban them on February 5. That's in contrast to Russian crude oil, which were snapped up by China and India after Europe shunned those supplies. Russia could refine less fuel but keep oil production stable, resulting in even more crude exports to India and China, Katona said. "China will likely to have to use its own products, reducing refined products exports from China that would have otherwise been available to EU buyers," he said.

Jet fuel this year will be the largest source of oil demand growth, says the International Energy Agency, which monitors energy consumption. In Singapore, jet fuel is trading around $122.30 per barrel, up 14% in the last two weeks. "Overall, we expect jet demand to increase significantly this year," he told an earnings call on Thursday, as air travel continues to rise. U.S. jet fuel inventories ended last year at 34 million barrels, the lowest since 1990, according to U.S. government data. Total jet fuel supplied, a proxy for demand, stood at 1.56 million barrels per day in 2022, the highest since 2019.

☆ Kpler: There's no confidence in any bullish signals being flashed in the energy markets
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailKpler: There's no confidence in any bullish signals being flashed in the energy marketsViktor Katona of Kpler discusses why oil prices are trading at 1-year lows, even amid ongoing supply issues, and the loosening of more COVID restrictions in China, the world's largest oil importer.

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